Later this week all eyes will be watching an USA town hosting another peace conference, the first one after 7 years, involving the Arab-Muslim world and Israel.
What is it all about?
The peace conference is a meeting set up by the USA, as a “last chance” for the leaving Bush administration to achieve a significant step forward in the Middle East peace process. For almost 7 years, since the Camp David conference that saw Barak and Arafat failing to agree on a peace deal, G. Bush administration tried their best to push things. But then came Iraq, and Afghanistan, and all Americans were too busy. On the mean time, the second intifada started, claiming the lives of thousands in PA and Israel.
Every effort towards peace stopped during those days, while Ariel Sharon as Israel’s Prime Minister decided on the disengagement plan. But that was very clearly a unilateral act, without any kind of talk let alone agreements. On the same time, both in Israel and PA many changes happened: Israel opinion polls has moved to the centre; the second Lebanon war showed once more power by itself will not be good enough in our neighbourhood; and in Gaza the Hammas took over after achieving a majority of seats in the PA democratic elections.
Israel is forced to be part of Annapolis many will say. Prime Minister Olmert is not ready for true peace agreement, nor is the Israeli population. But on a rough time, when olmert head is on the stake with 4-5 different criminal investigation against him in claims of corruption, it is time to “create” an agenda. Also, olmert is too week to say “no” to the very clear invitation from USA. Not only that, he will not want to be the person who failed the peace conference – he will go to Annapolis.
PA is basically two heads ruled: in Gaza the Hammas lead by Henya is against any kind of talk with Israel, let alone recognition of the Jewish state. Is the west bank, Abbas is not strong enough either to not participate or to strike a deal. Similarly to Olmert, he needs some kind of a change to his stale term on presidency.
Arab league countries have decided they will join the conference. The difficult one was Syria that said it will only participate if the Golan Heights will be part of the talks. The Arab league conference last week did agree on that condition, and has had the Americans to add that topic to the table to discuss. The Arab nations, lead by the pro-western Saudi-Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, decided to join the conference mainly to try and defend the suni Muslims countries (Majority) against the shiat revolutionary extremists, in other words – Iran. There is a growing fear among the Arab nations that Iran with a nuclear bomb will be too strong and achieve more supporters not only inside Iran. President Bush himself has said in the past that peace or at list some kind of agreement in the Middle East will make the job for him dealing with Iran easier.
On top of that the Arab nations had agreed in the past to the two states solution and are pushing to bring an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict specifically. When that happens, many are foreseeing prosperity in the region. It is clear to many that Arab nations will gain a lot through relationships with Israel – not just directly as in business with Israelis, but mainly to gain accesses to the USA market and power bases specifically.
All together it looks like Annapolis will not bring peace to the region: the Palestinians are too busy fighting each other rather then agreeing on their agenda; Abbas is to week to have his followers signing up an inclusive deal with Israel; Olmert can not deliverer with his problems at home and non-agenda card he is holding, especially after the second Lebanon war he failed to win; Syrians are only interested to get the Golan heights back, but this will not happen in Annapolis, which will create more frustration for Syrian executives; the Arab league nations are supporting solution but will not force anything on the Palestinians; Iran is a big threat to Israel, USA and Saudi Arabia, therefore will be a non-issue major issue.
I think the best we can expect from the conference is the reinvigorating of the peace process once again. For the first time in 7 years the different sides are meeting up, and this is good. The major issue will be how to move forward, but I am guessing the Americans will set some kind of a plan to carry on the discussion. The only fear I have is what will happen if all of it fails and the extremist of each sides will again come to conclusion there is no other way but violence?
Read more:
Jez points:
Annapolis Agenda
- Stopping terrorism and hostilities by Arab nations towards Israel and a recognition of the existence of Israel
- To provide adequate security and return law and order to the Palestinian people
- To create a two state solution
- To create this by stopping settlement building, to remove the 2 road system, to remove road blocks, allow freedom of Palestinians movement and to stop land confiscation by Israel.
- To outcast Iran and bring international condemnation of their actions
- Syria will attend as long as the Golan Heights is discussed
- The Arab League will accept decisions if Israel return to the 1967 boarders.
Internet sources:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=927237&contrassID=2&subContrassID=4
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=927427&contrassID=0&subContrassID=0
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=927394&contrassID=0&subContrassID=0
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=927213&contrassID=0&subContrassID=0
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=927213&contrassID=0&subContrassID=0
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Mideast_peace_conference
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1195546700776&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1195546705066&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
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