29.03.06 Election Update 6

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ISRAEL VOTES 2006: ISRAEL DECIDES THE MAKE-UP OF THE 17TH KNESSET

The results (with 99 percent of the vote counted):

With 99 percent of the votes counted, it is now possible to declare that the winner of the elections for the 17th Knesset is Kadima. Yet the victory is of far smaller dimensions than party leaders had originally hoped. The modest extent of Kadima's victory was not the only surprise in a night that has brought forth a new and strangely unfamiliar Israeli political map.

Parties and movements which have stood at or near centre stage for years in Israel have been reduced to the dimensions of small, second tier lists. Secondary players, meanwhile, have significantly increased support. And one completely new list must be added to the parties now likely to be included in the coalition. After an election campaign described by all as lacklustre, the results of the elections appear nothing short of dramatic. Let us observe closer.   

The parties

Kadima's victory, though of lesser dimensions than expected, nevertheless makes Israeli political history. For the first time, a newly-founded party has won the elections to the Knesset. Ehud Olmert may be confident of heading the next Israeli government, with seasoned politician Shimon Peres and rising political star Tzipi Livni by his side. With less than 30 seats to command, however, Prime Minister-elect Olmert will face tough coalition negotiations. Labour and other potential partners will feel able to demand senior portfolios. The ability of the new government to push forward the 'Convergence Plan' detailed during the campaign by Olmert will also be reduced by the smaller than expected number of seats achieved by Kadima. In his victory speech, Olmert stressed diplomatic issues and his determination to move ahead, preferably by negotiations but by unilateralism if necessary. This morning, he directed a plea to Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas for such negotiations, emphasising, “We are ready to compromise, to give up parts of the beloved Land of Israel…and evacuate, under great pain, Jews living there, in order to create the conditions that will enable you to fulfil your dream and live alongside us."

Amir Peretz's Labour party have performed in line with expectations, winning 20 seats. As with Kadima, this is somewhat less than the party had hoped for, though the scale of the disappointment in Labour's case is smaller. Labour leaders now stand to gain senior portfolios in any government to be formed, and party leaders consider that Labour's holding of ground is a vindication of Peretz's decision to focus the campaign primarily on social and economic issues. After the exit poll results last night, Peretz once more made clear that Labour's social and economic programme will be its guide in coalition negotiations: "Under no circumstances," he told supporters, "will we join a new government without it being clear what the social red lines are." Senior Labour official Yuli Tamir, meanwhile, told reporters from Israel's Channel 2 last night that in her view Labour had succeeded in shifting the Israeli political map by establishing a large, clearly social-democratic party as the second most powerful force in Israeli politics.

Apart from the victory of Kadima, the elections for the 17th Knesset are likely also to be remembered because of the very disappointing results achieved by the Likud. 

Having dominated the Israeli political stage for a generation, the party now has just 11 Knesset seats, making it the fifth largest Knesset faction. This brings the Likud down to a lower level of support than that enjoyed by Menachem Begin's Herut party (the Likud's predecessor) in the first Knesset elections of 1949. Party Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu struck a defiant note last night, declaring his intention to stay at the Likud helm, and "rehabilitate the movement." He was also openly critical of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's decision to leave the Likud to form Kadima. The Likud's poor showing leaves familiar, senior party figures, including Uzi Landau and Yisrael Katz, outside the Knesset. The tremendous defeat of the Likud also suggests that the anti-disengagement Likud ‘rebels’, led by Landau, have in fact cost the Likud its dominant role in Israeli politics. Certainly, the future of Netanyahu's leadership must now be in doubt.

One of the winners last night was Avigdor Lieberman, of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, which won 12 seats. This makes Lieberman the leader of the largest rightist bloc, and since Shas, with 13 seats, is thought likely to join the coalition, Lieberman will probably serve as Leader of the Opposition. The results are being seen as a major achievement for Lieberman, who declared to supporters and journalists after last night's exit polls that he believes that Yisrael Beiteinu has begun its road to becoming Israel's largest party. Lieberman first emerged in the public eye in 1996 as a senior official under then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and last night he succeeded in beating his former boss's party into fourth place.

Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party, will be more than satisfied with their achievement of 13 seats. This is testimony to Shas Chairman Eli Yishai's growing stature, and is being seen by analysts as final proof that Yishai has succeeded in establishing himself as a leader in his own right, and has moved from beneath the shadow cast by former party strongman Aryeh Deri. Shas’s success is also likely to have come at the expense of the Likud, with a sizeable segment of voters who switch their votes between the two parties.

Looking to the smaller lists, the real surprise of the elections was the sudden emergence onto the political map of the Pensioners party, led by former senior security official Rafi Eitan. With seven seats, the party is thought likely to enter the governing coalition.

The National Union-National Religious Party, winning nine seats, performed largely in accordance with expectations, as did the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism list, with six seats. The left-wing Meretz bloc scored slightly lower than expected, with only four seats. The Arab parties, taken together, now have Knesset representation of ten mandates.

Implications of the results

The smaller than expected Kadima victory will make for tough coalition bargaining in the days and weeks ahead. While it is not possible to predict the final make-up of the coalition, a number of pointers are available. First of all, it is likely that the core of the governing coalition preferred by PM-elect Olmert will be Kadima, Labour and the

Pensioners party. These lists together, however, will have a combined Knesset strength of only 55 seats, short of the minimum majority of 61 seats in the 120-seat coalition. At least one more list will need to be added to the coalition, and Shas, Meretz and United Torah Judaism are seen as the most likely candidates. 

It should also be noted that Avigdor Lieberman, while he has publicly expressed his opposition to the idea of further unilateral withdrawals, is known to dislike the idea of being in opposition, preferring the possibility of an executive role. Thus, Yisrael Beiteinu should not be ruled out as a potential coalition member. (It may be, however, that given his party's new role as the leading party of the right, he will now prefer to build up his profile as the main voice of opposition.) 

The prospect of the Likud joining the coalition, at least for as long as Benjamin Netanyahu remains at the helm in the party, appear close to nil. Given the party's very poor performance, Netanyahu's leadership is likely to face challenge in the not-too-distant future.   

An alternative possible coalition configuration would see Kadima attempting to form a government with all the religious and rightist parties. Though arithmetically possible, this is considered highly unlikely given Olmert's central ambition to shape Israel's final borders through negotiation or unilateral withdrawal.

Kadima thus has a variety of possible coalition partners to choose from. And with the combined right-religious bloc possessing only 51 seats, there is no potential rightist bloc majority to stop him from carrying out bold policy initiatives.

Conclusion

At the close of the elections for the 17th Knesset, it may be concluded that the political gamble begun by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon - when he chose to split the Likud party he helped to create - has partially paid off. Kadima, a new centrist party committed to a programme of further withdrawals from parts of the West Bank, alongside the continued prosecution of Israel's anti-terror campaign, is set to take up the leading position in Israel’s governing coalition that will take shape in the coming weeks. Yet the Kadima victory was in dimensions much smaller than had been predicted, and the party has emerged as a leading, rather than dominant, force on the Israeli political map. 

With the dramatic reduction of the Likud to 11 Knesset seats, the emergence to prominence of Yisrael Beiteinu and the Pensioners party, and the re-branding of Labour as a campaigning social-democratic party, the 17th Knesset promises to usher in a changed Israeli political map, likely to be tasked with debating and deciding on major policy moves in the four years to come.