Shalom everybody - Here is a starter guide to whats going on. I hope it triggers your own research.
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This e-mail is a guide to the crazy stuff going on in Israel at the moment. I have compiled an easy guide to some of the main issues. It is a mixture of my opinion and things I've taken from different articles and sources.
Israel has turned on it's head.
In the last few months, and mainly in the last few weeks...
-Sharon implemented the disengagement from Gaza
-Amir Peretz was elected head of Avodah (Labor)
-Sharon quit the Likud and began a new party
-The northern border (with Lebanon) erupted in fighting
3 interesting stories:
elections in red
Sharon's new party in blue
the northern border in purple
ELECTIONS:
mainly from a Ha'aretz article: www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/648247.html
Elections will happen soon.
Probably sometime in March 2006. The sponsors of bills to dissolve the Knesset propose March 28; if the president grants the prime minister's request and issues an order to dissolve the Knesset, elections will take place later, on March 7 or 8.
Under the law, the order dissolving the Knesset goes into effect 21 days after receiving presidential approval. Can the Knesset do something during that period that would prevent early elections?
Certainly. The law says that within those 21 days, 61 MKs can ask the president to invite a willing MK to try to form a new government. Over the next three weeks, the Likud will try to enlist the support of 61 MKs to form
an alternative government. Coalition chairman Gideon Sa'ar began negotiations Monday to persuade other factions to back an alternative government. The odds are against this happening.
Nonetheless, if Likud enlists the required support for its candidate for prime minister (apparently Benjamin Netanyahu), will there not be early elections?
That depends on whether the MK invited to form a new government succeeds. The president would assign him that task within two days, and the candidate would have 28 days to complete it. The president is entitled to grant a 14-day extension.
What happens if the candidate fails?
After this 42-day period, the president informs the Knesset speaker that the candidate was unable to form a government, the Knesset is then dissolved and new elections called within 90 days.
Why did the Knesset vote Monday on bills to dissolve the Knesset if the prime minister had already asked the president to do so?
Because the Knesset wants to call the shots - it is largely an arm-wrestling match between the prime minister and lawmakers.
What is the current status of the prime minister?
Legal opinions differ, but the law states that a prime minister who has resigned continues in his post until a new government is formed. In effect, he has all prime ministerial powers and cannot be ousted by a vote of no-confidence.
Under what terms can Ariel Sharon establish an independent faction?
He must get at least 14 MKs - more than a third of the original faction - to join him. Sharon last night finished enlisting 14 of the Likud's 40 members to his new party. He is therefore entitled to the status of a Knesset faction, along with party funding and air time for television and radio campaign spots.
SHARON'S NEW PARTY:
this bit is from a few places. Just google Ariel Sharon (try http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3173079,00.html)
Sharon is prime-minister of Israel and was formerly a member of the Likud party.
Why is it so significant that he left?
He was one of the founding members of the Likud party in the 70's. He was a member of a few different parties, even the Mapai, which was the precursor to Avodah. But he was the epitome of a Likudnik for so many years.
What is the opinion of the public?
Nobody knows. But if you trust opinion polls then some interesting facts emerge. Sharons new party would be the largest in the knesset with 30 seats Amir Peretz's Avodah wins 26 seats The Likud party (the one Sharon quit) would plummet to 15 seats another survey had Sharon's party with more and Likud with less
What does it mean for the political scene?
Israel has had two main political parties for ages. Avodah and Likud. Avodah led the country at the start, the Likud took over in more recent times. Last elections the Shinui (central) party gained a lot of support preaching a centrist, secular line. It has now lost a lot of support. Now there is:
Avodah: Has temporarily gained a lot more support because Peretz is exciting and new and has a funny moustache. It may not last long.
Likud: Was a strange party. It seemed to be getting more extreme to the right, whilst its leader (Sharon) implemented left policies (disengagement). A leadership struggle will now occur and it remains to see what will become of this party.
Sharon's new party: Hasn't got a name yet. Sharon is a very popular man. Despite the fact that he looks like he might keel over and die any minute from heart failure (he is obese, almost spherical) the public seem to support his moves and he somehow managed to last in the likud despite the fact that noone agreed with him.
NORTHERN BORDER:
Why am I writing about the northern border?
In May 2000 Israel took its troops out of southern Lebanon (just above the top of the map in Israel). Before the withdrawal lots of soldiers were getting killed, Israelis wondered why the IDF was in Lebanon. It was meant to be a defensive position, Israel never wanted to occupy it permanently. Withdrawal was criticized by some for seeming like a weak position. Its the old argument: they shot at us, we left, now they know that violence works. This kind of argument is extremely relevant today in terms of withdrawal from Gaza and I guarantee it will surface in a big way if and when Israel withdraws from the West Bank
excerpts from an article from ha'aretz
Tense calm follows fiercest Hezbollah strike in 5 years
A tense calm obtained along the Israel-Lebanon border on Tuesday, after the fiercest Hezbollah attacks in five years sent Israelis to bomb shelters across the north on Monday. At least four Hezbollah gunmen were killed on Monday trying to kidnap soldiers from IDF outposts on the Lebanese border, and seven soldiers and four civilians were wounded in the series of clashes.
Exchanges of fire continued between the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah through the night, with IAF aircraft pounding a site believed to have been used to fire on Israel.
IDF officers said Hezbollah used Katyusha rockets, mortars, anti-tank missiles and small arms in the attacks on Israeli positions.
The UN Security Council, meanwhile, failed on Monday to agree on how to condemn the violence, mainly because of disputes between the United States and Algeria, diplomats said.
The United States wanted the reference to Israel deleted and Algeria, the only Arab member of the council, objected to putting the blame on Hezbollah, according to participants at the consultations.
Galilee panhandle and Western Galilee residents spent several hours on Monday afternoon and evening in bomb shelters for the first time since the Israeli military withdrew from Lebanon in May 2000.
Senior defense officials decided Monday night on a restrained response, if Hezbollah ceases its fire. Hezbollah sent Israel a message last night via the UN that it is interested in calm, and Israeli officials are inclined to consent. Israel also asked the U.S., EU and UN to pressure the Lebanese government to restore order. Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz did approve a series of more aggressive steps, should the Hezbollah fire continue.
Hezbollah gunmen launched simultaneous attacks on several areas along the northern border, beginning at about 2:45 p.m. At first, apparently as a diversion, artillery fire hit IDF bases at Har Dov. There were no injuries. In addition, a farmer was shot at in a field near Metula. He was also not wounded.
Not a surprise
Monday's attack did not come as a surprise - the IDF had forecast for the last two weeks that the Shiite organization would try a "quality attack" along the border, and the level of alert in the area was raised and reinforcements were deployed.
A meeting convened last night by Mofaz decided on a restrained response. The IDF argued that Hezbollah suffered a failure and Israeli losses had been relatively minor. Senior officers argued that a harsh response "would play into Hezbollah hands and ignite the region."
You have already read some of my opinions: we can't agree on everything, let's all agree that we hope for peaceful lives for Israelis and Palestinians. but aside from that, let the debate begin. |
